A Facebook friend posted the following. Is it possible to interpret these numbers in a pessimistic way? If so, can you please explain how in the comments?
As of 3/25: 14,764 tests* with 704 coming back positive (4.7%). Testing is still limited mostly to those with severe symptoms.
14 days ago, ODH Director Dr. Acton estimated 100,000 cases. I’m inclined to believe that number, but let’s conservatively say she was off by 300% and there were only 25,000 cases.
Since the average incubation period is 5-7 days before symptoms appear, even if all 25,000 people were on day 1 of exposure (an obvious improbability), enough time has passed to do some base calculations.
182 hospitalizations is .7% of cases
10 deaths is .04%
These figures would be on the high side of probability for several reasons:
1) As mentioned, this assumes Acton vastly overestimated. If her number was accurate, these figures would all be divided by 4.
2) These figures assume no new cases in the week following Acton’s estimate. If every person infected two more during this time, these figures would be divided by 3 [after dividing for adjustment (1) if warranted].
3) ODH has said they are still trying to get total test numbers. So the ~15,000 is actually a minimum of total tests completed.