According to Gareth Porter, writing in the Asia Times, “The suspect graph of a nuclear explosion reportedly provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as evidence of Iranian computer modeling of nuclear weapons yields appears to have been adapted from a very similar graph in a scholarly journal article published in January 2009 and available on the Internet.”
The graph was published in a November 27 AP story but was “immediately found to have a mathematical error of four orders of magnitude.” (Thanks to Adam Lemke.)